Here is a story first reported in 2005 which is arguably the most important story of the decade.
Cantarell, The Second Largest Oil Field in the World Is Dying
At the time of that story Cantarell was producing 2.1 million barrels/day. A flow rate which has only been outdone by Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest and most productive oil field which accounts for about 50% of Saudi Arabia's total production.
What has since been realized is that 2.1 million barrels was Cantarell's peak production rate. Today Cantarell is producing about 500,000 barrels/day and declining rapidly. That's about a 75% drop in production in 5 years. Unfortunately, this is characteristic of decline rates from aging and over produced oil fields.
Just to be clear, the world's second largest producing oil field has peaked and set into irreversible decline. In the very near future, Mexico will cease to be an oil exporter.
Which means that... Ghawar is now the last of the world's super giant oil fields. By many accounts, this field too may have already peaked as the Saudis have not been able to crest 10 million barrel/day production since 2005. Very little is known for certain though as Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Oil company, is intensively secretive about its production capabilities and reserves.
But this much is certain... when Ghawar peaks... the world will have effectively peaked on oil production.
So what is Peak Oil?
It does NOT mean that we are out of oil. It means that flow rates, currently at around 70 million barrels/day, will no longer be able to be increased to meet growing demand.
A very brief explanation as to why this happens-
All oil fields "mature" over time. This simply means that as oil is extracted from a field the internal pressures that help force the oil out become lower and lower until it becomes necessary to "force" the oil out. In a production sense, this means that the first oil to come out of a field is quite easy and cheap to get out, the latter oil becomes increasingly more expensive and difficult to extract. This pattern when graphed looks like this...
This is the North Sea, the last Super Giant find we ever discovered(back in '69 I believe)
It has also peaked sometime around 2005.
North Sea has peaked.
If you're thinking we'll just look for more oil...
... oil discoveries have been steadily declining since 1970 meaning that every year since then we have discovered less and less oil. Furthermore, fields decline all the time. Which means that every year production coming online has to first offset declines in other areas.
If you're thinking "there's plenty of oil still out there un-developed"...
... You're right! There is. But this is not a measure of reserves. This is a question of flow rates. I.E. How much oil can be brought to market in a given year. Oil in the ground is essentially worthless. It is oil in a barrel, in the marketplace, that matters.
Once global production peaks, the amount of oil that is brought to market will begin to steadily, and irreversibly decrease.
Peak Oil is a mathematical inevitability.
It is GOING to happen, it's simply a matter of when. Once it does happen, growth in demand will no longer be possible and oil will become increasingly and irreversibly more expensive.
When will it happen? No one can say for sure. Furthermore it will not be readily apparent until it has already happened. It's one of those pesky things that only appears in hindsight.
What happens to us when it does? The global economy as we know it will gradually cease to function.
Oil is the lifeblood of the modern world. Transportation, petrochemicals, fertilizers, pesticides, plastics, cosmetics, you name it... oil's a part of it.
Eventually it will get so expensive to do all those things that they will rapidly become economically nonviable.
You can conjecture all you want but it is simply impossible to predict what will happen with a change of that magnitude. Luckily, as far as I can tell pretty much nothing is being done to prepare for this eventuality.
If it makes ya feel any better, even after peak we'll still have some good years.
This girl explains it much better.
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